June job growth fails to keep pace with labor force


Published/Last Modified on Thursday, July 27, 2006 5:25 PM MDT


According to the most recent figures released by the Arizona Department of Economic Security, Cochise County's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 4.9 percent in June, up from 4.6 percent in May. June's unemployment rate was at its highest level since January of this year.


In June, Cochise County saw a net increase of 675 jobs; however, this failed to keep pace with the increase in the labor force of 1,200 people. The labor force includes those persons aged 16 years and older who are employed or actively seeking work. In June, the county's labor force consisted of 58,000 actual or potential workers, of whom 55,025 were actually employed.

The number of unemployed persons in the county during the month of June totaled 2,950, up from 2,450 in May.

In June, the number of non-farm jobs in the county increased by 25, ending the month at 38,350. This reflects the creation of 1,600 non-farm jobs in the 12 months ending in June, for annual job growth of 4.4 percent.

The private sector saw an increase of 325 jobs in June, with total private-sector employment in the county moving from 25,800 to 26,125. This reflects the creation of 1,300 private-sector jobs over the past year, for job growth of 5.2 percent.

The government sector in Cochise County declined by 300 jobs in June, bringing the total number of government jobs to 12,225. This reflects the creation of 300 government jobs over the past year, for job growth of 2.5 percent.

Within the government sector, the number of federal government jobs increased by 50 during the month of June, bringing the total number of federal government jobs to 5,075. In the 12 months ending in June, the federal government saw the creation of 75 new jobs in Cochise County, for job growth of 1.5 percent.

At the state and local government levels, the number of jobs decreased by 350, bringing the total number of state and local government jobs to 7,150. Over the past year, state and local government jobs in Cochise County have expanded by 225, for job growth of 3.2 percent.

The county's goods-producing sector, which includes manufacturing, as well as mining and construction, gained 50 jobs in June, moving from 3,700 to 3,750. This reflects the creation of 125 goods-producing jobs over the past 12 months, for job growth of 3.4 percent.

The mining and construction industry grouping in Cochise County gained 25 jobs in June, moving from 2,875 to 2,900. Compared to June of last year, this reflects a net gain of 150 jobs, for job growth of 5.5 percent. Most of the new jobs created in this industry grouping over the past 12 months were in construction, which has continued to fuel the local economy despite increases in long-term interest rates. But the growth of construction jobs has slowed in recent months.

The manufacturing industry in Cochise County gained 25 jobs in June, moving from 825 to 850. Compared to June of last year, this reflects a net loss of 25 jobs, for job growth of -2.9 percent.

The private, service-providing sector in Cochise County grew by 275 jobs in June, ending the month at 22,375. Compared to June of last year, this reflects the creation of 1,175 private, service-providing jobs, for job growth of 5.5 percent. The private, service-providing sector includes trade, transportation, and utilities; information; financial activities; professional and business services; educational and health services; leisure and hospitality; and the category of "other services."

Between May and June of this year, professional and business services gained 225 jobs, ending the month of June at 4,850. Trade, transportation, and utilities added 150 jobs, ending the month at 6,925. Financial activities gained 25 jobs, closing the month at 1,025. The number of information jobs stabilized in June at 425. Educational and health services, and other services, also stabilized at May levels, closing the month at 3,950 and 950, respectively. Leisure and hospitality lost 125 jobs in June, ending the month at 4,250.

The major contributors to job growth in the county's private, service-providing sector over the past 12 months were the trade, transportation, and utilities industry grouping, which added 600 jobs for job growth of 9.5 percent. Professional and business services gained 425 jobs over the 12 months ending in June, for job growth of 9.6 percent. Leisure and hospitality gained 250 jobs for job growth of 6.3 percent. Also contributing to the strong job growth in the private, service-providing sector over the past year was the financial activities industry, which grew by 50 jobs for a job growth rate of 5.1 percent.

The "other services" industry grouping declined by 25 jobs in the 12 months ending in June, for job growth of -2.6 percent. The information industry declined by 50 jobs in the June comparisons, for job growth of -10.5 percent over the past 12 months. Cochise County's educational and health services industry lost 75 jobs between June 2005 and June 2006, for job growth of -1.9 percent.

At the state level, Arizona's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate climbed to 4.4 percent in June, up from 4.2 percent a month prior. In June of last year, the state's unemployment rate was 4.7 percent.

Nationally, the unemployment rate in June stabilized at 4.6 percent. The national unemployment rate in June 2005 was 5.0 percent.

DES also produces estimates of sub-county unadjusted employment data for the incorporated areas of Cochise County. The CER then makes seasonal adjustments to these data.

It is important to note that the city-level estimates are based on a census share model, which presumes the labor force, employment, and unemployment in the county's seven cities are distributed similarly to what was observed in the most recent census. Using this model, changes in the county's employment situation will produce changes in the city data, but the ratio of city to county data will remain the same as that observed in the most recent census, conducted in 2000.

Based on the census share model, Benson's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in June moved from 8.3 to 8.7 percent. Bisbee's unemployment rate in June increased from 5.1 to 5.4 percent. Douglas' seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in June climbed from 7.2 to 7.6 percent. The unemployment rate in Huachuca City moved from 6.7 to 7.2 percent in June.

In Sierra Vista, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in June increased from 2.8 to 2.9 percent. The unemployment rate in Tombstone for June climbed from 3.1 to 3.3 percent. In Willcox, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for June increased from 7.2 to 7.5 percent.

Over the past couple of years, steady population growth in Cochise County has served to offset the slower job growth and rising unemployment that would otherwise have been expected to result from inflationary pressures, particularly toward the end of 2005 and early 2006. Increases in the population also helped offset an expected slowing of consumer spending as tighter monetary policy at the national level brought higher interest rates across the nation.

Higher costs for building and construction materials, and rising long-term interest rates nationwide, have slowed job growth in late 2005 and into 2006 in the local construction industry, as well as related financial activities and professional and business services. The steady growth in the population countywide should continue to lessen the impact of these economic conditions.

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