According to the most recent figures released by the Arizona Department of Economic Security, Cochise County saw a net increase of 125 non-farm jobs in November, moving from 38,775 to 38,900.

From November 2005 to November 2006, the county saw the addition of 775 new jobs, for a 12-month job growth rate of 2 percent. In recent months, the 12-month job growth rate has declined steadily. In the first quarter of 2006, 12-month job growth rates were above 5 percent. This declined to an average of 4.4 percent in the second quarter and 3.1 percent in the third quarter. The steady decline in job growth is largely the result of a slowdown in construction throughout most of the county. Other likely contributors are higher interest rates, which discourage borrowing and raise the cost of previously incurred consumer debt, resulting in lower levels of spending in the economy.

The county's private sector saw an increase of 100 jobs in November, with total private-sector employment moving from 26,250 to 26,350. This reflects the creation of 750 private-sector jobs over the past year, for job growth of 2.9 percent.

The county's goods-producing sector, which includes manufacturing, as well as mining and construction, saw a net loss of 25 jobs, moving from 3,850 to 3,825. Over the past year, the county has gained 100 goods-producing jobs, leading to a 12-month job growth rate of 2.7 percent. Most of these new jobs have been in the manufacturing industry.

The mining and construction industry grouping in Cochise County lost 50 jobs in November, moving from 2,950 to 2,900. Compared to November 2005, this reflects a net loss of 75 jobs, for job growth of -2.5 percent. A slowdown of the local housing market has reduced the growth of construction jobs in recent months, and this is expected to persist as higher interest rates and inflationary pressures continue to take their toll.

The manufacturing industry in Cochise County gained 25 jobs in November, moving from 900 to 925. Compared to November a year prior, this reflects the addition of 175 jobs, for 12-month job growth of 23.3 percent. The private, service-providing sector in Cochise County grew by 125 jobs, ending the month at 22,525. Compared to November 2005, this reflects the creation of 650 private, service-providing jobs, for job growth of 3 percent. The private, service-providing sector includes trade, transportation, and utilities; information; financial activities; professional and business services; educational and health services; leisure and hospitality; and the category of "other services."

Between October and November 2006, trade, transportation, and utilities added 100 jobs, ending the month at 6,925. Over the past 12 months, 200 new trade, transportation, and utilities jobs were added, for a job growth rate of 3 percent.

The information industry stabilized at 400 jobs in November. Compared to November 2005, the information industry lost 50 jobs leading to a 12-month job growth rate of -11.1 percent.

Financial activities lost 25 jobs in November, moving from 1,050 to 1,025. In the November comparisons, 25 new jobs were added between November 2005 and November 2006, for a 12-month job growth rate of 2.5 percent. The slowdown in recent months is related to the downturn in the real estate market, which lowers the demand for financial activity support to real estate transactions.

Professional and business services gained 75 jobs, ending the month at 4,950. In the 12 months ending in November, professional and business services added 525 new jobs, for job growth of 11.9 percent. Much of the strong growth in this industry grouping is related to local defense contracting services that provide support to activities at Fort Huachuca.

The educational and health services grouping stabilized at 4,050 jobs in November. Compared to November a year prior, educational and health services added 75 jobs for a 12-month job growth rate of 1.9 percent. The leisure and hospitality industry grouping stabilized at 4,275 jobs in November. This reflects a stabilization of leisure and hospitality jobs at their same level a year prior.

Other services lost 25 jobs in November, moving from 925 to 900. Between November 2005 and November 2006, other services lost 125 jobs for a 12-month job growth rate of -12.2 percent.

Cochise County's government sector gained 25 jobs in November, moving from 12,525 to 12,550. This reflects the creation of 25 new government jobs over the 12 months ending in November, for a job growth rate of 0.2 percent. Within the government sector, the federal government added 25 jobs, ending the month at 4,900. This reflects the loss of 125 jobs in the 12 months ending in November, for a job growth rate of -2.5 percent.

In November, state and local government jobs in Cochise County stabilized at 7,650. This reflects the creation of 150 new jobs compared to November 2005, for a 12-month job growth rate of 2 percent.

We should expect a continued slowing of job growth throughout the first half of 2007. The hardest hit industries will continue to be construction, financial activities, information, and other services. Potential interest rate declines in the second half of 2007 may provide relief and give a boost to the county's struggling real estate market.

If you have any questions on the economy, please contact the CER at (520) 515-5486 or email the center at cer@cochise.edu. Be sure to check out the CER's website at www.cochise.edu/cer.

Robert Carreira is the director of institutional research at Cochise College. Look for his column each Monday in Money. Contact the Center for Economic Research at 515-5486, or by e-mail at cer@cochise.edu. The center's Web site is www.cochise.edu/cer.