PHOENIX — Arizona’s financial hole is getting deeper as state revenues continue to lag behind expectations.
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That is more than $83 million below projections.
That also puts revenues for just the first five months of the fiscal year in excess of $310 million below what was forecast when legislators adopted the state’s $10.6 billion budget. And that is in line with the latest predictions that the state is on target to run about $1 billion in the red by June 30 unless something is done.
But there is one bright spot in the latest report by the Joint Legislative Budget Committee: The state Department of Education is reporting it may end the year with more than $61 million left over. Legislative budget staffers said most of that is due to enrollment in public schools not hitting anticipated levels. “The thought is that it’s undocumented workers leaving town,’’ said state School Superintendent Tom Horne. He said that follows adoption of a new law earlier this year penalizing companies that knowingly hire those not in the country legally, a law that takes effect today. (eds: jan. 1)
Lawmakers already have decided to begin hearings a week from today (eds: Jan. 8) several days before the session is supposed to start. The extra time is designed to allow lawmakers to scrutinize the spending of all state agencies and make recommendations for where to cut.
At this point, the Republican leadership is counting on making up the difference through a combination of spending reductions and taking cash from the state’s “rainy day fund.’’ Gov. Napolitano has promised to have a plan to present to lawmakers later this month.
While she has yet to provide specifics, she said that will include using the rainy day fund as well as some actual spending cuts and deferring other expenses. But Napolitano also wants to borrow more than $300 million for school construction.
By contrast, the budget adopted by legislators calls for paying cash. And Rep. Russell Pearce, R-Mesa, who chairs the House Appropriations Committee, said he sees no reason to burden future taxpayers with interest payments when he believes there are programs that can be trimmed.
The biggest gap in state revenues remains sales taxes, an indicator of what people are — and are not — buying. Arizona’s soft economy has kept tax collections virtually identical to last year despite the state’s population growth. But legislators by this time were counting on having at least $152 million more.
Income tax collections also are nearly $139 million so far this budget year.
But the problem is not in what workers have withheld from their paychecks.
Instead, legislative budget staffers report that estimated and final tax payments are running at just half of what was coming in at the same time last year.
And on top of that, the refunds paid to taxpayers who had too much withheld are up about 60 percent from a year earlier.
Corporate income tax collections also are down.





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