PHOENIX — A new statewide poll shows more Arizonans believe Barack Obama will be the next president than think John McCain will wind up in the White House — even if he remains the hometown favorite.

 Pollster Bruce Merrill said the telephone survey of 55 registered voters found that, among Arizona voters, McCain would beat either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. Merrill found, though, Obama would give Arizona’s senior senator more of a run for his money than Clinton: With the backing of 38 percent of those questioned, he is just 11 points behind McCain among Arizonans, with 13 percent undecided; the poll shows McCain with a 24 point edge over Clinton who is supported by just 33 percent of those questioned.

 But Merrill also found that 44 percent of those asked said they believe Obama eventually would win a nationwide contest, versus 38 percent who think McCain will be president.

 They don’t believe, though, McCain would lose if he ends up running against Clinton.

 Merrill said there are several possible reasons for th disconnect between how Arizonans intend to vote and who they think ultimately will be president. One of them, he said, is simply the pride Arizonans take in having one of their own on the national ballot.

 “I think a lot of people would basically say, ‘I’m going to support him because he’s an Arizonan, I’m an Arizonan, this is Arizona,’ but still think on a national level that Obama has the best chance to win,’’ he said.

 Merrill said, though, that prediction ultimately could prove wrong. He pointed to McCain’s traditional strength in getting support from both independents and Democrats.

 “I think anybody who thinks McCain can’t win is crazy,’’ he said.

 But Merrill also said McCain needs to solidify that support if that’s going to happen: He said that, right now, independents in Arizona, who make up a quarter of registered voters, are almost equally split between Obama and McCain. The survey also found that 90 percent of those questioned were aware of a New York Times story alleging improper contacts involving McCain, a television chain owner and his lobbyist.

 But Merrill found most Arizonans giving the report little credence. Nearly 60 percent said the report was not at all believable, versus just 6 percent who found it very believable and 27 percent who said it is somewhat believable. And Merrill said politics apparently plays a role in how people feel.

 “The only people who really believed it was the hard-core Democrats,’’ he said. “And they’d believe  anything because they don’t like McCain.’’

 The survey, conducted earlier this month, has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.