State exports value grew slower than rest of nation

By Howard Fischer
Capitol Media Services
Published/Last Modified on Saturday, June 7, 2008 3:09 PM MDT


PHOENIX — The value of goods and services produced in Arizona grew slower last year than the rest of the country.


 New figures Thursday from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis show the state’s gross domestic product rose just 1.8 percen from 2006. That compares with a 2.0 percent national change.

 What makes the figures more significant is that Arizona’s annual growth between 2005 and 2006 was 6.7 percent — the second highest in the nation and more than double the 3.1 percent U.S average.

 Driving all of that, according to economists, is the state’s moribund housing industry.

 The value of construction activity in Arizona actually shrank by more than 1.2 percent year over year. And the financial sector, heavily linked to mortgages, also declined.

 What kept that from dragging the state’s GDP growth down to zero were stronger performance in professional and technical service and, to a lesser extent, manufacturing and retail trade.

 Dan Anderson, an economist for the Arizona Board of Regents, sai the problem is more than simply fewer homes are being built.

 “It’s not just the construction,’’ he said. “It’s the financing it’s putting furniture in it, it the landscaping.’’

 Anderson said it has been that segment of the economy that has been driving the state.

 “We’ve been disproportionately benefitting from it,’’ he said o the state’s historic strong growth. “We are going to be disproportionately hurt by it.’’

 Dennis Doby, senior director of research administration at th state Department of Commerce, agreed that the big change in the state’s growth is linked to problems in the housing market and the ripple effect on other industries.

 He said Arizona will continue to have the kind of wild swings the new GDP figures show as long as the state’s economy remain heavily dependent on growth.

 “It is about diversification,’’ he said. “It’s attracting more industries and getting a broader base of industries so that one particular or two particular industries, when they have a downturn, don’t have as big of an impact on the economy.’’

 But Doby said that’s easier said than done.

 “You’re competing with other states that want to do the same thing,’’ he said.

 David Drennon, the agency’s communications director, said there has been an increased focus on promoting “knowledge-based industries,’’ including bioscience and nanotechnology. “Those really are the jobs of tomorrow,’’ he said.

 Anderson said while that 1.8 percent year-over-year growth in th state GDP is a big drop from the prior year, it is nothing to cause alarm.

 He said it remains close to that 2.0 percent national average.

 And it is far better than many other rapid growth states  states the Bureau of Economic Analysis said also have been hit hard by the construction slowdown.

 For example, California, which recorded just a 3.8 percent growth in 2006 managed to post only a 1.5 percent change last year.

 Nevada went from a 5.4 percent increase in 2006 to just 0.6 percent.

 And Florida’s growth rate went from 3.6 percent in 2006 to absolutely zero last year.

 But the construction industry slowdown didn’t just hit Sunbelt states. The BEA reports that sector dragged down the economies of

 New Hampshire, Delaware and Michigan into negative year-over-year numbers.

 

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