May, Cochise County’s retail sales declined by 1.2 percent after adjusting for inflation. This was the third consecutive month of declining retail sales in the county. Countywide, retail sales have declined in 6 of the past 7 months. The last month that saw positive growth was February of this year, when sales were up 2.4 percent after inflation. Prior to that, the last month to see positive growth was October last year, which saw real growth of 6 percent.

Using the standard definition of a recession as a sustained period of declining economic activity, Cochise County’s retail market has been in a recession since November. Since the beginning of the year, retail sales countywide have been down 2.6 percent compared to the same period last year.

In May, the county’s accommodation sales, which include hotel, motel, and other temporary lodging sales, were down 0.5 percent in inflation-adjusted terms. This was the second consecutive month of declining sales, following real growth of 5 percent in March. From January through May, sales were down 1.2 percent after the inflation adjustment.   

Despite the poor performance of Cochise County’s retail and accommodation industries, restaurant and bar sales were up 8.5 percent in May. This follows three consecutive months of decline, following strong performance in January. For the first 5 months of 2008, restaurant and bar sales saw real growth of 4.4 percent compared to the same period of 2007.

At the city level, restaurant and bar receipts in Benson were down 3.7 percent in May, after inflation. This was the fourth consecutive month of declining sales. For the first 5 months of 2008, sales were down 0.4 percent.

Benson’s accommodation receipts in May were up 21.5 percent. The strong growth in May followed a decline of 23.4 percent in April. For the first 5 months of 2008, sales were up 2.7 percent.

Retail sales are not reported for Benson due to the city’s two-tiered tax system, which precludes accurately estimating sales based on tax collections. Retail sales tax revenue, however, was up 3.1 percent (unadjusted) in the May comparisons. For the first 5 months of the year, Benson’s retail sales tax revenue was up 3.9 percent.

In Bisbee, retail sales in May were down 8.7 percent after adjusting for inflation. In the first 5 months of 2008, Bisbee’s retail sales were up 1.2 percent.

Bisbee’s restaurant and bar sales in May were down 7.5 percent compared to May last year. This was the sixth consecutive month of decline. Bisbee’s restaurant and bar sales have been down in 11 of the past 12 months. For the first 5 months of this year, sales were down 8.7 percent after inflation.

Despite the poor performance of Bisbee’s restaurant and bar sales, the city’s accommodation receipts in May were up 30.4 percent. For the first 5 months of the year, sales were up 29.1 percent.

In Douglas, restaurant and bar sales were up 32.1 percent. This was the second consecutive month of positive growth, following nine consecutive months of declining sales. In the first 5 months of the year, sales were down 4.1 percent after inflation.

Retail sales are not reported for Douglas due to the city’s two-tiered tax system. Retail sales tax revenue, however, was up 3.8 percent (unadjusted) in the May comparisons. In the first 5 months of 2008, the city’s retail sales tax collections were up 1.2 percent. Accommodation sales are not reported for Douglas due to the small number of establishments and the Arizona Department of Revenue’s confidentiality policy.

In Huachuca City, retail sales were down 0.9 percent in May. In the first 5 months of this year, sales were down 22.6 percent. Last year, retail sales in Huachuca City were down 17.4 percent, the largest overall decline in the county. Accommodation and restaurant and bar sales are not reported for Huachuca City due to the small number of establishments and ADOR’s confidentiality policy.

In Sierra Vista, retail sales were down 15.5 percent in May after inflation. This was the second consecutive month of decline. In the first 5 months of 2008, sales were down 4.8 percent.

Sierra Vista’s restaurant and bar sales were up 10.9 percent in May. For the first 5 months of the year, sales were up 1.5 percent after inflation.

In May, Sierra Vista’s accommodation sales were down 4 percent after adjusting for inflation. For the first 5 months of 2008, the city’s accommodation sales were up 4.4 percent, compared to the same period last year.

In Tombstone, retail sales in May were up 14 percent, ending seven consecutive months of declining sales. For the first 5 months of 2008, sales were down 4.1 percent.

Tombstone’s restaurant and bar sales were down 43.9 percent in May, after adjusting for inflation. In the first 5 months of 2008, Tombstone’s restaurant and bar sales were down 4.5 percent.

Accommodation receipts in Tombstone increased 30.4 percent in May. For the first 5 months of the year, sales were up 9.6 percent.

In Willcox, restaurant and bar sales were up 15.9 percent in May, following two consecutive months of decline. For the first 5 months of the year, sales were down 5.4 percent.

Accommodation receipts in Willcox were down 13.2 percent in May, after adjusting for inflation. This was the third consecutive month of decline. In the first 5 months of the year, sales were down 7.1 percent in inflation-adjusted terms.

Retail sales are not reported for Willcox due to the city’s two-tiered tax system. Retail sales tax revenue, however, was down 22.6 percent (unadjusted) in the May comparisons. For the first 5 months of 2008, retail sales tax revenue in Willcox was up 0.8 percent compared to the same period last year.

If you have any questions on the economy, please contact the Cochise College Center for Economic Research at (520) 515-5486 or email us at cer@cochise.edu. Be sure to check the CER’s website at www.cochise.edu/cer.