Howard Fischer
Capitol Media Services

John McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate appears to be working out for him — at least in Arizona.

Pollster Bruce Merrill said Tuesday that 50 percent of people questioned in a statewide poll believe putting the Alaska governor on the ticket actually will help him to win the election next month. By contrast, only 43 percent of Arizonans say Barack Obama’s selection of Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware will aid his candidacy.

But Merrill, who conducted the survey of 976 registered voters late last month for KAET-TV, the Phoenix PBS affiliate, said it remains an open question of whether McCain will carry his home state.

He said the Republican senator’s lead over Democrat Barack Obama in Arizona has narrowed to single digits. A month earlier, McCain held a 10-point lead.

Of particular note, Merrill said just 15 percent remain undecided, about half of what the figure was just a month earlier before both parties had their national conventions — and before each announced a running mate.

“The electorate is highly polarized and there probably won’t be much movement by Republicans and Democrats,’’ said Merrill, who conducted the survey last month for KAET-TV, the Phoenix PBS affiliate. He said McCain maintains his lead because of strong support from evangelicals and conservative Democrats.

“The election in Arizona may be decided by whether young people and Hispanics turn out to vote,’’ Merrill said. He said independents — who now make up more than one out of four registered voters — also may hold sway.

Palin could be a factor.

Despite the showing that she aids the ticket, Merrill said 46 percent of those questioned said they are not very confident she could take over and be an effective president if McCain died during his first few weeks in office. Another 24 percent said they were very confident of her ability, with an equal number saying they were generally confident.

Conversely, only 24 percent of those questioned said they were not confident that Biden could take over if Obama died in office, compared to 35 percent who said they were very confident and another 35 percent who said they were generally confident.

Merrill told Capitol Media Services that it appears Obama supporters in Arizona also are noticing the narrowing of the gap between the candidates and may be deciding to “take a gamble’’ on spending money here. Merrill said he already has seen three commercials for the Democrat nominee.

The main goal, said Merrill, may be to move sufficient numbers to the point where a poll actually shows Obama potentially beating McCain in Arizona. He said that would create “bragging rights’’ for Obama: If McCain is vulnerable in his home state, that could help bolster the Democrat’s chances elsewhere.

The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

Just the Facts

Q: Who will you probably vote for in November?

John McCain — 45%

Barack Obama — 38%

Ralph Nader — 1%

Bob Barr — Less than 1%

Cynthia McKinney — Less than 1%

Undecided — 15%

— Source: KAET-TV