Third of a series
By Larry Blaskey
Douglas Dispatch

Douglas unemployment ballooned to 9.4 percent based on the most recent unemployment report from he state.

Now, we can officially say the sky is falling.

But not so fast.

The figures for October show a “seasonally adjusted” figure of 9.4 percent. In the information it shows a little increase in employment, but the increase in unemployment  is  actually coming from a large increase in the number of workers the state now says are eligible for employment.

While the state and even county figures might be correct, the city by city breakdown formula has some flaws in it.

“Douglas unemployment rate is based on a formula derived from the 2000 census,” said Robert Carreira of the Cochise County Center for Economic Research.

The city figures were probably correct for the first month or so after the formula was set, but after that point it is just an estimate.”

Carriera said that the Douglas figure may be off by as much as 1.5 percent, so instead of being 9.4 percent, the unemployment rate is more likely 7.9 percent or even lower.  The current unemployment  rate in the state is 6.5 percent.

For example, if the formula says that 5 percent of all county job growth will occur in Douglas, and during a one-month period we have 200 new employees start at the call center, the unemployment figures would only show 10 new job starts (5 percent of the 200 new jobs) in the community instead of the full 200.

Because the formula was determined eight years ago, job creation not even imagined in 2000 is having a dramatic impact in  Douglas.

Advanced Call Center Technologies, which will be moving into its new building on 10th Street in the middle of this month, now has nearly 400 employees. Few of those are probably accounted for in the new unemployment figures for Douglas.

And those 400 employees will quickly  increase in 2009, an ACCT official said.

And that does not include new jobs for the new  Carl’s Jr. mini mall or the Best Western Hotel.

Protection

“The job makeup of Douglas has helped insulate it from some of the job losses that have affected other parts of the country. We are actually seeing job creation in Douglas,” Carriera said.

Since a big part of the job market is made up of government agencies – Border Patrol, Customs, U.S. Forest Service, state, county and local law enforcement, other state and county positions, city government, and schools and colleges – it provides some insulation against recession. In fact, during a recession, government creates even more jobs.”

Five of the city’s top 10 employers are government agencies:

1. Arizona Department of Corrections – 679 full-time employees

2. Douglas Unified School District – 561

4. Cochise College- 221

5. City of Douglas – 216

8. Cochise County - 66

The total number of federal, state, county, city and school employees in the county is about 27 percent of the total workforce that is employed. That number is likely 35 to 40 percent in Douglas.