According to figures released by the Arizona Department of Commerce, Cochise County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stabilized at 7.1 percent in December. Cochise County’s unemployment rate remained the lowest in the state and was considerably below the state and national levels. The statewide unemployment rate in December increased from 8.9 to 9.1 percent. Nationally, the unemployment rate stabilized at 10 percent.
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According to ADOC estimates, adjusted for seasonality by the Cochise College Center for Economic Research, city level unemployment rates for December were: Benson, 12.4 percent; Bisbee, 7.8 percent; Douglas, 10.8 percent; Huachuca City, 10.2 percent; Sierra Vista, 4.2 percent; Tombstone, 4.7 percent; and Willcox, 10.7 percent. Annual rates for 2009 were: Benson, 12.1 percent; Bisbee, 7.6 percent; Douglas, 10.6 percent; Huachuca City, 10 percent; Sierra Vista, 4.2 percent; Tombstone, 4.6 percent; and Willcox, 10.5 percent.
ADOC unemployment estimates for the cities in Cochise County are based on a model that pegs city rates to the county rate based on data from Census 2000. The model does not pick up changes at the city level since 2000 that differ from county-level trends. CER focus group discussions throughout the county indicate a likely overestimation of unemployment in Benson and Douglas due to the opening of the Wal-Mart Supercenter and ACT Call Center, respectively, in those cities. Sierra Vista’s unemployment rate is likely underestimated as indicated by comparison to recent American Community Survey data published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Despite stabilization of the unemployment rate, Cochise County lost a seasonally expected 175 nonfarm jobs in December. Compared to December 2008, the number of nonfarm jobs countywide was down by 400, for a 12-month job growth rate of -1.1 percent. The pace of annual job losses has slowed considerably in recent months.
The county’s private sector lost 100 jobs in December. Since December 2008, the county has lost 300 private sector jobs, for job growth of -1.2 percent.
Within the private sector, the number of goods producing jobs, which includes manufacturing and construction, declined by 100 in December. Of these, 25 were in construction and 75 were manufacturing jobs. Since December 2008, the county’s goods producing subsector has seen a net loss of 50 jobs for a 12-month job growth rate of -2.1 percent. The county’s construction industry gained 100 jobs in the 12 months ending in December, for job growth of 5.8 percent. These were offset by the loss of 150 manufacturing jobs over the same period for job growth of -23.1 percent.
The number of jobs in the county’s private service providing subsector stabilized at November levels in December. Within this subsector, trade, transportation, and utilities gained 50 jobs, and educational and health services gained 75 jobs. These job gains were offset by the loss of 75 professional and business service jobs and 50 leisure and hospitality jobs. The number of jobs in information, financial activities, and other services stabilized at November levels.
In the 12 months ending in December, Cochise County’s private service providing subsector lost 250 jobs, for 12-month job growth of -1.1 percent. Trade, transportation, and utilities lost 325 jobs, for job growth of -5 percent. Other services lost 175 jobs, for job growth of -20 percent. Information lost 75 jobs, for job growth of -15.8 percent. Financial activities lost 25 jobs, for job growth of -3.7 percent. These job losses were partially offset by a gain of 25 educational and health services jobs, for job growth of 0.6 percent, and 325 leisure and hospitality jobs for job growth of 8.2 percent. Professional and business service jobs in December were at the same level as in December 2008.
December saw a loss of 75 government jobs in Cochise County, which included a loss of 50 state and local government jobs and 25 federal government jobs. In the 12 months ending in December, government jobs declined by 100, for a 12-month job growth rate of -0.8 percent. This reflects 175 new federal government jobs, for a 12-month job growth rate of 3.4 percent, offset by the loss of 275 state and local government jobs, for job growth of -3.6 percent.
Job losses in Cochise County are likely to continue into the first quarter of 2010. Based on recent trends, the county should begin to see overall positive job growth in the second quarter.
Robert Carreira, Ph.D. is director of the Center for Economic Research at Cochise College. If you have any questions on the economy, please contact the CER at (520) 515-5486 or by email at cer@cochise.edu. Check out the CER’s website at www.cochise.edu/cer.
COCHISE COUNTY NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT
December 2009
November 2009
1-Month Change
December 2008
12-Month Change
12-Month Job Growth Rate
Total Non-farm Jobs
37,200
37,375
-175
37,600
-400
-1.1%
Total Private Sector Jobs
24,575
24,675
-100
24,875
-300
-1.2%
Goods Producing Jobs
2,325
2,425
-100
2,375
-50
-2.1%
Construction*
1,825
1,850
-25
1,725
100
5.8%
Manufacturing
500
575
-75
650
-150
-23.1%
Service Providing Jobs
34,875
34,950
-75
35,225
-350
-1.0%
Private Service Providing Jobs
22,250
22,250
0
22,500
-250
-1.1%
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
6,200
6,150
50
6,525
-325
-5.0%
Information
400
400
0
475
-75
-15.8%
Financial Activities
650
650
0
675
-25
-3.7%
Professional and Business Services
6,025
6,100
-75
6,025
0
0.0%
Educational and Health Services
4,000
3,925
75
3,975
25
0.6%
Leisure and Hospitality
4,275
4,325
-50
3,950
325
8.2%
Other Services
700
700
0
875
-175
-20.0%
Government Jobs
12,625
12,700
-75
12,725
-100
-0.8%
Federal Government
5,250
5,275
-25
5,075
175
3.4%
State and Local Government
7,375
7,425
-50
7,650
-275
-3.6%
* Includes mining
Note. Discrepancies due to rounding
Source: Arizona Department of Commerce and Cochise College Center for Economic Research
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
December 2009
November 2009
December 2008
United States
10.0%
10.0%
7.2%
Arizona
9.1%
8.9%
6.6%
Cochise County
7.1%
7.1%
6.2%
Benson
12.4%
12.6%
10.9%
Bisbee
7.8%
7.9%
6.8%
Douglas
10.8%
10.9%
9.5%
Huachuca City
10.2%
10.4%
9.0%
Sierra Vista
4.2%
4.3%
3.7%
Tombstone
4.7%
4.8%
4.2%
Willcox
10.7%
10.8%
9.4%
Note. Monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. National, state, and county rates reported by the Arizona Department of Commerce, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor. Sub-county monthly rates seasonally adjusted by the Cochise College Center for Economic Research based on Arizona Department of Commerce unadjusted figures.
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