According to figures released by the Arizona Department of Commerce, the number of jobs in Cochise County declined by 200 from December to January.  From January 2009 to January 2010, Cochise County lost 450 jobs for a 12-month job-growth rate of -1.2 percent.

In January, the county’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from 7.1 to 7.4 percent. Despite the increase, Cochise County’s unemployment rate remained the lowest in the state and was considerably below the state and national levels. The statewide unemployment rate in January stabilized at 9.2 percent. Nationally, the unemployment rate dropped from 10 to 9.7 percent.

According to ADOC estimates, adjusted for seasonality by the Cochise College Center for Economic Research, city-level unemployment rates for January were: Benson, 13 percent; Bisbee, 8.2 percent; Douglas, 11.3 percent; Huachuca City, 10.7 percent; Sierra Vista, 4.5 percent; Tombstone, 5.1 percent; and Willcox, 11.2 percent.

ADOC unemployment estimates for the cities in Cochise County are based on a model that pegs city rates to the county rate based on data from Census 2000. The model does not pick up changes at the city level since 2000 that differ from county-level trends. CER focus group discussions throughout the county indicate a likely overestimation of unemployment in Benson and Douglas due to the opening of the Wal-Mart Supercenter and ACT Call Center, respectively, in those cities. Sierra Vista’s unemployment rate is likely underestimated as indicated by comparison to recent American Community Survey data published by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Cochise County’s private sector lost 225 jobs in January. Since January 2009, the county has lost 675 private-sector jobs, for job growth of -2.7 percent.

Within the private sector, the number of goods-producing jobs, which includes manufacturing and construction, declined by 75 in January. This reflects the loss of 50 construction jobs and 25 manufacturing jobs. Since January 2009, the county’s goods-producing subsector has lost 275 jobs for a 12-month job-growth rate of -11.6 percent. The county’s construction industry lost 200 jobs in the 12 months ending in January, for job growth of -11.8 percent. Manufacturing lost 75 jobs over the same period for job growth of -11.1 percent.

The number of jobs in the county’s private service-providing subsector declined by 150 in January. Within this subsector, trade, transportation, and utilities lost 200 jobs and other services lost 25 jobs. The losses were partially offset by a gain of 50 professional and business service jobs and 25 educational and health service jobs. The number of jobs in financial activities, information, and leisure and hospitality stabilized at December levels in January.

In the 12 months ending in January, Cochise County’s private service-providing subsector lost 400 jobs, for 12-month job growth of -1.7 percent. Professional and business services lost 275 jobs, for job growth of -4.7 percent. Trade, transportation, and utilities lost 175 jobs, for job growth of -2.8 percent. Leisure and hospitality lost 125 jobs, for job growth of -3.1 percent. Other services lost 50 jobs, for job growth of -5.6 percent. Despite overall job losses in the private service-providing subsector in the 12 months ending in January, educational and health services gained 150 jobs, for job growth of 3.5 percent; information gained 50 jobs, for job growth of 8.3 percent; and financial activities gained 25 jobs, for job growth of 2.6 percent.

January saw a gain of 25 government jobs in Cochise County, all of which were at the state and local government levels.  Federal government jobs in January stabilized at December levels. In the 12 months ending in January, government jobs in Cochise County increased by 225, for a 12-month job-growth rate of 1.8 percent. All of the gains were at the federal government level, which saw a 12-month job-growth rate of 4.5 percent. State and local government jobs stabilized in the 12 months ending in January.

Job losses in Cochise County are likely to continue through the first quarter of 2010. Based on recent trends, the county should begin to see overall positive job growth in the second quarter of the year.

 

Robert Carreira, Ph.D. is director of the Center for Economic Research at Cochise College. If you have any questions on the economy, please contact the CER at (520) 515-5486 or by email at cer@cochise.edu. Check out the CER’s website at www.cochise.edu/cer.