Housing decline slows, improves in some areas of Cochise County

By Robert Carreira
Center For Economic Research
Published/Last Modified on Wednesday, March 31, 2010 4:25 PM MDT


In 2009, the pace of decline in existing home sales in Cochise County slowed considerably, and some areas of the county saw improvement, according to data on the Southeast Arizona Multiple Listing Service. Overall, home sales countywide dropped 2.7 percent in 2009, following declines of 20.7 percent in 2006, 10.6 percent in 2007, and 20 percent in 2008. The volume of homes sold throughout Cochise County in 2009 was 44.8 percent below the housing market peak reached in 2005.


Although home sales overall were down in 2009, the annual decline was due to slow sales in the first half of the year. In the first 6 months of 2009, sales were down 9.1 percent compared to the first half of 2008. However, the second half of the year saw sales climb 3.4 percent compared to the second half of 2008. Even more promising, sales in the fourth quarter of 2009 were 23.9 percent higher than in the fourth quarter of 2008. Much of that activity, however, was due to a surge in sales as the new homebuyer tax credit was scheduled to expire in November. The credit has since been extended through April of this year.

While annual home sales were down countywide in 2009, sales in Sierra Vista were up 4.1 percent. Sierra Vista is the largest market in the county accounting for nearly two-thirds of all home sales. As with the countywide trend, sales were much stronger in the second half of the year, particularly in the fourth quarter. In the first half of 2009, sales in Sierra Vista were down 6.7 percent compared to the same period of 2008. In the second half of the year, sales were up 15.6 percent and in the fourth quarter were up by 33 percent.

While Sierra Vista saw a rebound in existing home sales in 2009, other areas of the county continued to struggle. Benson, Bisbee, Douglas, and Tombstone all saw sales for the year fall more than 20 percent compared to 2008. Huachuca City saw a comparatively milder decline at 2 percent.

The median price of homes sold countywide was down 0.8 percent in 2009, from $184,000 to $182,500. This includes site-built, manufactured, and mobile homes, as well as townhouses and condominiums. From 2004 through 2007, the median price of homes sold in Cochise County increased 39.4 percent, and since 2007 has fallen 6.4 percent.

Countywide, the average price per square foot (heated/cooled) for homes sold in 2009 was down 4.1 percent, from $109.95 to $105.44. The price-per-square-foot measure takes into account price differences based on home size. The relatively larger decline in the average price per square foot suggests the milder drop in the median price was due in part to larger homes being sold in 2009 than in 2008.

The average price per square foot for homes sold in Cochise County increased 36.6 percent from 2004 to 2006, and since 2007 has fallen 12 percent. This suggests a larger drop in home values than revealed by the median home price comparisons.

Countywide, the largest drop in home prices in 2009 was in Tombstone. The median home price in Tombstone was down 47.7 percent in 2009, from $131,000 to $68,500. The drop in the average price per square foot was relatively milder at 21.6 percent, suggesting much of the drop in the median price was due to smaller homes being sold. Nonetheless, the drop in home prices in Tombstone in 2009 was the largest in the county by both measures.

Part of the reason for the steeper price declines in Tombstone was the city also saw higher increases during the housing boom years. From 2004 to 2006, the median home price in Tombstone increased by 67 percent, while countywide prices increased only 37.6 percent. The average price per square foot in Tombstone increased 82.4 percent from 2004 to 2006; while countywide the increase was only 36.6 percent.

The silver lining in Tombstone’s declining housing market is that homes in Tombstone are now at their most affordable level since before the housing boom, which is good news for those looking to buy a home there. In 2009, the median home price in Tombstone was the lowest in the county. The average price per square foot was lower only in Douglas.

Countywide, homes that sold in 2009 went for 95.3 percent of the asking price, which was virtually unchanged from 2008. The area with the highest selling-to-asking price ratio was Benson, where the average home sold for 97 percent of the asking price. The lowest was Tombstone at 85.1 percent.

The average home that sold countywide in 2009 was on the market for 149 days, down only slightly from 151 in 2008. Homes sold the quickest in Sierra Vista at 137 days. The slowest selling homes in 2009 were in Bisbee where it took an average of 230 days.

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