PHOENIX — If the numbers ultimately prove accurate, Arizona had a lackluster October in terms of job growth.
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And the typical October month-over-month growth for the last decade — including the recession — is 11,600.
Economist Aruna Murthy said the numbers appear a bit out of kilter.
She said this is particularly true in the leisure and hospitality industry — everything from entertainment and recreation to hotels and restaurants — which should normally be growing this time of year. Instead, it lost 500 jobs.
Those numbers, she said, do not make sense.
"I question them,” Murthy said.
"It’s very contradictory to anything that’s happened in the past,” she continued. Murthy said she wants to monitor the situation for several months before deciding if there’s a real trend in the work "or just an aberration.”
The issue, she said, may come down to how her agency computes the numbers by surveying employers around the state.
"Although we target the same employers every month, the responses could vary,” Murthy explained.
For example, one month might produce just a 40 percent response rate versus 60 percent in another month.
"And the employers who respond could vary,” she said. "So if the response is poor and we do not have enough employers (in the survey), it might impact the estimation.”
The other sector of the economy where Murthy is reviewing the numbers is in health care. She said employment in that sector, one of the healthiest in the state, should be going up this time of year; it’s not.
Even with all that, Murthy said there were enough jobs added in other sectors of the economy to trim the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate by a tenth of a point, to 8.1 percent.
That includes a particularly strong month in retail employment as companies begin to gear up for seasonal sales. In fact, Murthy pointed out, Arizona’s year-over-year retail employment grew 2.1 percent versus just 1 percent for the country at large.
The state also benefitted from the addition of 2,100 jobs just last month in construction.
Murthy pointed out that, even if the month-over-month figures may be subject to question, the overall trend is good. She said that the number of people working last month in the private sector in Arizona — now more than 2.05 million — is 2.2 percent above the same time a year earlier.
Potentially more telling, she said, this is the eighth consecutive month of year-over-year gains above that 2 percent figure. That she said, "clearly suggests the private sector is gaining jobs and things are improving through time.”
Unemployment rates
(not seasonally adjusted unless otherwise stated)
Area / October 2012 / September 2012 / October 2011
Arizona (seas adj) / 8.1% / 8.2% / 9.2%
Arizona / 8.1% / 8.0% / 9.3%
U.S.(seas adj) / 7.9% / 7.8% / 8.9%
Apache / 18.2% / 17.4% / 19.2%
Cochise / 7.8% / 7.7% / 8.4%
Coconino / 7.6% / 7.4% / 8.5%
Gila / 9.4% / 8.9% / 10.7%
Graham / 8.7% / 8.8% / 10.0%
Greenlee / 6.5% / 5.7% / 7.1%
La Paz / 9.5% / 9.3% / 9.7%
Maricopa / 6.6% / 6.8% / 8.2%
Mohave / 9.4% / 9.1% / 10.8%
Navajo / 14.3% / 13.7% / 15.5%
Pima / 7.1% / 7.0% / 8.1%
Pinal / 8.5% / 8.3% / 10.1%
Santa Cruz / 18.4% / 17.7% / 19.2%
Yavapai / 8.5% / 8.3% / 9.5%
Yuma / 29.9% / 29.7% / 28.8%
— Source: Arizona Department of Administration
Sector employment in 1,000s
Sector / October 2012 / At its peak*
Total nonfarm / 2,484.2 / 2,713.6
Manufacturing / 152.7 / 187.4
Natural resources & mining / 11.8 / 14.3
Construction / 122.5 / 247.5
Trade, transportation, utilities / 485.6 / 549.2
Information/ 34.7 / 55.6
Financial activities / 170.5 / 187.2
Professional & business services / 359.4 / 408.7
Private education & health services / 367.9 / 323.2**
Leisure & hospitality / 264.6 / 279.1
Other services / 87.4 / 102.0
Government (including public education) / 427.1 / 449.0
* Different sectors have different peak dates
** Prior peak in October 2008
— Source: Arizona Department of Administration
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